Prediction Market Strategies & Backtests

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, evaluated every 10 seconds against Coinbase BTC-USD data refreshed every 5 seconds, with a 500-contract cap and price bounds 0.01–0.99. Rules run top to bottom, first match wins. Rule 1 skips at size 500 or more. Exits sell all: size up to 100 with profit above 12 and price 0.10–0.90; size 101–300 with profit above 18 and price 0.10–0.90; size 301+ with profit above 50; losses below -25 (size up to 100), -40 (101–300), -60 (301+). Entries, only at size 250 or less, each buy 250: buy yes when price is above the 1-hour VWAP and 12-minute EMA, 5-minute change above 0.001, velocity positive, price 0.35–0.65, spread at most 0.015; buy no mirrored. Buy yes when change above 0.0015, velocity positive, price 0.20–0.80, spread at most 0.015; buy no mirrored. With 5 minutes or less to expiry: buy yes at price 0.40–0.60 with positive change and velocity, price above VWAP, 12-minute EMA above 20-minute SMA, spread at most 0.015; buy no mirrored; buy yes at price 0.88+ with spread at most 0.03, price at or above the 15-minute high, velocity positive; buy no at price 0.12 or less with price at or below the 15-minute low, velocity negative.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, re-evaluating every 10 seconds with a 500-contract position limit and YES prices bounded from 0.01 to 0.99. Rules run top to bottom, and the first match ends the tick. Rule 1 skips when position size is at least 500. Rules 2 through 7 are tiered per-fill exits: with size up to 100, sell all if unrealized profit exceeds 12 (with price between 0.10 and 0.90) or loss falls below -25; with size 101 to 300, sell all if profit exceeds 18 (price between 0.10 and 0.90) or loss falls below -40; with size 301 or more, sell all if profit exceeds 50 or loss falls below -60. Rules 8 through 15 buy 250 contracts only when size is 250 or less and the spread is at most 0.03: YES or NO entries on Bitcoin price versus one-hour VWAP and 12-period EMA, on 5-minute change beyond 0.001 or 0.0015 with matching 1-minute velocity, on trades within 5 minutes of expiry at mid prices (0.40 to 0.60) with VWAP and moving-average alignment, and on late entries near price extremes (0.88 or above, 0.12 or below) at 15-minute highs or lows with matching velocity.

This strategy trades 15-minute Bitcoin markets on Kalshi, checking conditions every 10 seconds against live Coinbase BTC price data. It buys 50 contracts of YES or NO when short-term momentum, price relative to moving averages, price level, and spread conditions all line up, and it exits by selling everything when tiered profit targets (12, 18, or 50 depending on position size) or tiered loss limits (25, 40, or 60) are hit. Position size is capped at 500 contracts, and new buys stop once 250 contracts are held.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M Bitcoin market and evaluates every 30 seconds, checking custom rules in order and stopping at the first match. It skips when position size reaches 500 contracts. Exits are tiered by position size: with 100 or fewer contracts it sells all if unrealized profit exceeds 12 and the yes price is between 0.10 and 0.90, or if loss is below -25; with 101 to 300 contracts it sells all on profit above 18 within the same price band, or on loss below -40; with 301 or more it sells all on profit above 50 or loss below -60. Entries buy 250 contracts only when position size is 250 or less: a buy-yes or buy-no when BTC price sits above or below both its one-hour VWAP and 12-period EMA with a 5-minute change beyond plus or minus 0.001 and matching velocity sign, price between 0.35 and 0.65; a faster-momentum version using a 0.0015 change and 0.20–0.80 price band; a final-5-minutes entry with price between 0.40 and 0.60 and EMA/SMA alignment; and a 5-minute breakout entry near 0.88 for yes or 0.12 for no when price is at the 15-minute high or low. All entries require a spread of 0.03 or less, and the position limit is 500 contracts.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, checking conditions every 10 seconds with a maximum position of 500 contracts and prices between 0.01 and 0.99. Rules run top to bottom and the first match ends the tick: at 500 contracts it skips; otherwise it sells the whole position on profit tiers by size (100 or fewer contracts above 12 profit, 101-300 above 18, 301 or more above 50, with the two smaller tiers also needing price between 0.10 and 0.90), and on loss tiers by size (100 or fewer below -25, 101-300 below -40, 301 or more below -60). Entry rules only fire at 250 contracts or fewer and buy 250 contracts: YES when BTC price is above its 1-hour VWAP and 12-period 1-minute EMA with 5-minute change above 0.0010 and positive 1-minute velocity, or NO on the mirrored conditions; YES/NO on 5-minute change beyond 0.0015 with matching velocity; in the last 5 minutes with price 0.40-0.60 plus trend and VWAP/EMA/SMA alignment, or price at or above 0.88 (YES) or at or below 0.12 (NO) with BTC at its 15-minute high or low. Almost all entries require spread at or below 0.015, the late ones 0.03.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M market, this trades BTC-USD 15-minute contracts, checking every 10 seconds. Rules run top to bottom; the first match fires. Over 500 contracts (limit 500), rule 1 skips. Exits sell all: rules 2-4 take profit at unrealized PnL above 12 (size ≤100), 18 (101-300), or 50 (≥301), the first two also needing price 0.10-0.90; rules 5-7 stop out below -25 (≤100), -40 (101-300), or -60 (≥301). Entries, all requiring size ≤250 and buying 250 contracts, are: rule 8 buy yes when BTC price is above both its 1h VWAP and 12-period 1m EMA, 5m change above 0.001, 1m velocity positive, price 0.35-0.65, spread ≤0.015; rule 9 the mirrored buy no. Rule 10/11: buy yes when 5m change above 0.0015 with positive velocity, or buy no below -0.0015, price 0.20-0.80, spread ≤0.015. Rules 12/13, within 5 minutes of expiry: price 0.40-0.60, 5m change and velocity same direction, BTC above VWAP and 12-EMA above 20-SMA for yes (mirrored for no), spread ≤0.015. Rules 14/15, also within 5 minutes: buy yes if price ≥0.88, spread ≤0.03, BTC at/above its 15m high and velocity positive; buy no if price ≤0.12, spread ≤0.03, BTC at/below its 15m low and velocity negative.

Trades the Kalshi KXBTC15M market, evaluating every 10 seconds. It buys yes or no contracts in 250-contract orders when Bitcoin price, trend, momentum, contract price, spread, and time-to-expiry conditions are met. It exits all when unrealized profit or loss crosses tiered thresholds based on position size, and stops entering at 500 contracts.

On Kalshi's BTC 15-minute market, this strategy checks every 10 seconds and works through its rules in order, stopping at the first one that matches. It buys 100 contracts of YES or NO when Bitcoin's Coinbase price, momentum, and spread line up with the rule's conditions, and sells everything when unrealized profit or loss hits a threshold tied to position size. Position size is capped at 500 contracts, and buys only happen while holding 250 or fewer.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, this strategy checks every 10 seconds, capped at 500 contracts with prices between 0.01 and 0.99. Rules run top to bottom; the first match fires. At 500 contracts it skips. Exits split by fill size: up to 100 contracts sells at profit above 12 or loss below -25; 101-300 sells at profit above 18 or loss below -40; 301 or more sells at profit above 50 or loss below -60. Entries need position size at or below 250 and buy 250 contracts: yes when price exceeds 1h VWAP and 12-period EMA with 5-minute change above 0.001 and positive velocity, price 0.35-0.65, spread at most 0.015; no on the mirrored bearish version; yes on 5-minute change above 0.0015 with positive velocity, price 0.20-0.80, spread at most 0.015; no on the mirror; within 5 minutes of expiry, yes at price 0.40-0.60 with positive change, velocity, price above VWAP and EMA above SMA20, spread at most 0.015; no mirrored; within 5 minutes, yes at price 0.88 or higher, spread at most 0.03, price at 15-minute high with positive velocity; no at 0.12 or lower, at 15-minute low, negative velocity. Trading runs in New York time, blacked out weekdays 9:00-16:30.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M market it checks every 10 seconds, capped at 400 contracts, YES prices 0.01–0.99. Rules run top-to-bottom, first match fires. Rule 1: at position 400 or more, skip. Rules 2–4 sell everything on profit: positions up to 100 with unrealized PnL above 12 while price is 0.10–0.90; 101–300 with PnL above 18, same price band; 301+ with PnL above 50. Rules 5–7 sell everything on loss: up to 100 below -25; 101–300 below -40; 301+ below -60. Rules 8–15 buy only when position is 200 or less, 200 contracts each. Rules 8–9: price above/below BTC VWAP and 12-period EMA, 5-minute change beyond ±0.001, velocity same sign, price 0.35–0.65, spread at most 0.015. Rules 10–11: 5-minute change beyond ±0.0015, velocity same sign, price 0.20–0.80, spread at most 0.015. Rules 12–13 add time to expiry of 5 minutes or less, price 0.40–0.60, EMA versus SMA cross, spread at most 0.015. Rules 14–15 add expiry within 5 minutes, price 0.88+ or 0.12-, spread at most 0.03, BTC at 15-minute high/low, velocity same sign.

This strategy trades 15-minute Bitcoin markets on Kalshi, checking conditions every 10 seconds and capping total position at 500 contracts. It exits by selling everything at tiered profit or loss thresholds that depend on how large the position is, and it enters by buying 50 contracts of YES or NO when Bitcoin price momentum, trend, and the market's own price and spread line up. Entry signals only fire while the position is at or below 250 contracts.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, this strategy checks every 10 seconds, caps positions at 100 contracts, and trades only between prices 0.01 and 0.99. Rules run top to bottom and the first match fires alone. Rule 1 skips at 100 contracts. Exits: with 20 or fewer contracts, sell all if unrealized profit exceeds 12 and price sits between 0.10 and 0.90, or if loss exceeds 25. With 21 to 60 contracts, sell all if profit exceeds 18 and price is 0.10–0.90, or loss exceeds 40. With 61 or more, sell all if profit exceeds 50 or loss exceeds 60. Entries require 50 or fewer contracts and buy 50 contracts. Rules 8 and 9 buy yes or no when price sits above or below both BTC VWAP and 12-period EMA, 5-minute change exceeds ±0.001, velocity is directional, price is 0.35–0.65, and spread is at most 0.015. Rules 10 and 11 use ±0.0015 change and price 0.20–0.80. Rules 12 and 13 require 5 minutes or less to expiry, price 0.40–0.60, directional change, velocity, VWAP, and EMA versus SMA alignment. Rules 14 and 15 require 5 minutes or less, price at least 0.88 or at most 0.12, spread at most 0.03, price at 15-minute high or low, and directional velocity.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M market, this strategy checks every 10 seconds, with BTC reference data from Coinbase refreshed every 5 seconds and a 500-contract position cap (YES prices 0.01–0.99). Rules run top-to-bottom; the first match fires and ends the tick. Rule 1 skips when position size is at least 500. Rules 2–4 sell all on unrealized profit: above 12 when size is at most 100 and price is 0.10–0.90; above 18 when size is 101–300 and price is 0.10–0.90; above 50 when size is at least 301. Rules 5–7 sell all on losses below -25 (size ≤100), -40 (size 101–300), and -60 (size ≥301). Rules 8–11 buy 350 contracts when size is at most 250, spread is at most 0.015, and BTC signals align.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M market it picks the most liquid contract and checks conditions every 10 seconds, with a 500-contract cap and prices allowed from 0.01 to 0.99. Rules run top to bottom and the first match ends that tick: at 500 contracts it skips; otherwise it sells everything when unrealized profit exceeds 12 with size up to 100, exceeds 18 with size 101 to 300, or exceeds 50 with size 301 or more, and sells everything when losses go past 25, 40, or 60 for those same size bands. Entries use Coinbase BTC-USD data (price, 1-hour VWAP, 5-minute change, 1-minute EMA and SMA, 15-minute high and low, 1-minute velocity) refreshed every 5 seconds, all requiring size at or below 250. It buys 50 yes or no contracts on price versus VWAP and EMA moves, on 5-minute change past 0.0015 with matching velocity, near expiry within 5 minutes at mid prices, or near expiry at extremes above 0.88 or below 0.12 against the 15-minute high or low, each with its stated price and spread limits.

This strategy trades Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin market, checking conditions every 10 seconds against Coinbase BTC price, moving averages, and momentum. It buys 56 contracts of YES or NO when price sits in specific ranges and Bitcoin trends align, and sells everything when unrealized profit or loss hits thresholds tied to position size. Position size is capped at 140 contracts, with entries blocked above 70.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, this strategy checks every 10 seconds. Position cap is 500 contracts; prices 0.01-0.99. Rules run top-to-bottom, first match wins. Rule 1 skips when position is 500+. Exits sell everything per fill: Rules 2-4 take profit at unrealized PnL above 12 with size 100 or less (price 0.10-0.90), above 18 at size 101-300 (price 0.10-0.90), and above 50 at size 301+; Rules 5-7 stop out below -25, -40, and -60 for those same size tiers. Entries need position 249 or less and buy 250 contracts. Rules 8 and 9 buy yes/no when BTC price is above/below both its 1-hour VWAP and 12-period 1-minute EMA, 5-minute change beyond ±0.001, velocity aligned, price 0.35-0.65, spread 0.015 or less. Rules 10-11 use only ±0.0015 change plus velocity, price 0.20-0.80. Rules 12-13 require 5 minutes or less to expiry, price 0.40-0.60, and EMA above/below 20-period SMA. Rules 14-15 allow 5 minutes or less to expiry, price at/above 0.88 or at/below 0.12, spread 0.03 or less, BTC at 15-minute high/low, velocity aligned.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M Bitcoin market, checking conditions every 10 seconds with a maximum position of 500 contracts and allowed prices between 0.01 and 0.99. Rules run top to bottom and only the first match acts. Rule 1 skips when position size is at least 500. Rules 2 through 7 exit on per-fill profit or loss thresholds that vary by position size: at 100 or fewer contracts it sells everything when unrealized profit exceeds 12 or loss falls below -25; at 101 to 300 contracts it exits when profit exceeds 18 or loss falls below -40; at 301 or more it exits when profit exceeds 50 or loss falls below -60, with the profit rules also requiring price between 0.10 and 0.90. Rules 8 through 15 only enter when position size is 249 or fewer, each buying 250 contracts. Four momentum pairs buy yes or no depending on whether Bitcoin's price is above or below its one-hour VWAP and 12-minute EMA, or simply on 5-minute change and 1-minute velocity, with price bands of 0.35 to 0.65 or 0.20 to 0.80 and spread capped at 0.015. Two near-expiry pairs act within 5 minutes of expiry using price bands of 0.40 to 0.60 or the extremes of 0.88 and 0.12 with wider 0.03 spreads.

This trades Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin market, checking every 10 seconds, capped at 500 contracts with prices between 0.01 and 0.99. It buys 25-contract positions when Bitcoin's price, momentum, and trend line up with tight spreads, and sells everything at tiered profit or loss thresholds that depend on how large the position is.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M BTC market, this strategy checks every 10 seconds with a 100-contract cap and 0.01-0.99 price bounds, using Coinbase BTC data refreshed every 5 seconds. Rules run top to bottom, first match ends the tick: at 100+ contracts it skips; it sells all at small size (20 or less) with profit over 2.4 and price 0.10-0.90, at medium size (22-60) with profit over 3.6 and price 0.10-0.90, or at size 62+ with profit over 10; losses trigger sell-all at 20 or less below -5, 22-60 below -8, 62+ below -12. Buys of 50 fire only at size 50 or less: YES when BTC price beats VWAP and EMA, 5m change over 0.001, velocity up, price 0.35-0.65, spread at most 0.015 (mirrored for NO); faster momentum YES/NO at change 0.0015 with price 0.20-0.80; within 5 minutes of expiry YES/NO at price 0.40-0.60 with trend and EMA/SMA alignment; late YES at price 0.88+ or NO at 0.12 or less with 15m extremes and spread at most 0.03.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M market, the strategy checks every 10 seconds, capped at 100 contracts and prices 0.01–0.99. Rules run top to bottom; the first match fires. Rule 1 skips at size 100 or more. Rules 2–7 sell all: profit above 2.4 at sizes up to 20 (price 0.10–0.90), above 3.6 at sizes 21–60 (price 0.10–0.90), above 10 at sizes 61+; losses below -5 at sizes up to 20, -8 at 21–60, -12 at 61+. Rules 8–15 buy 50 only while size is 50 or less, using Coinbase BTC signals refreshed every 5 seconds. Rules 8–11 need price 0.35–0.65 (or 0.20–0.80 for momentum on 5-minute change) with spread at most 0.015. Rules 12–15 require 5 minutes or less to expiry.

This strategy trades Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin market, checking every 10 seconds and capping positions at 500 contracts. It exits first: selling everything when profit thresholds are met (12, 18, or 50 dollars depending on position size) or loss limits are hit (-8, -12, or -18 by size). Otherwise it enters in 20-contract trades, buying YES or NO based on Bitcoin's price relative to its hourly average, 12-minute and 20-minute averages, recent momentum and velocity, contract price bands, spread limits, and time left before expiry.

This Kalshi strategy trades the KXBTC15M Bitcoin market, checking conditions every 10 seconds with a 100-contract position limit and YES prices restricted to 0.01–0.99. Rules run top to bottom and the first match ends that tick: at 100 contracts it skips; exits sell the whole position based on position size and unrealized profit or loss (profit above 2.4, 3.6, or 10, or loss below -5, -8, or -12, depending on size tiers, with an added price 0.10–0.90 condition on the two smaller profit tiers). Entries of 50 contracts, using immediate-or-cancel orders, occur only when position is 50 or below and Bitcoin data from Coinbase meets momentum, price, and spread (at most 0.015, or 0.03 for late entries) conditions; six entry rules buy YES or NO on price versus VWAP and moving averages, acceleration, or within 5 minutes of expiry using recent highs and lows.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, this strategy checks every 10 seconds with a 100-contract cap and 0.01–0.99 price bounds. Rules run top-to-bottom, first match ends the tick. Rule 1 skips at 100+ contracts. Rules 2–4 sell all on unrealized profit: over 12 with size at or under 20 and price 0.10–0.90; over 18 with size 21–60 and price 0.10–0.90; over 50 with size 61+ (no price gate). Rules 5–7 sell all on losses: under -25 at size 20 or less; under -40 at size 21–60; under -60 at size 61+. Entries need size at or under 50 and spread at or under 0.015, size 50. Rules 8–9: price above/below the 1-hour VWAP and 12-period EMA, 5-minute change beyond ±0.001, velocity sign, price 0.35–0.65. Rules 10–11: 5-minute change beyond ±0.0015, velocity sign, price 0.20–0.80. Rules 12–13: 5 minutes or less to expiry, price 0.40–0.60, matching 5-minute change and velocity signs, price vs VWAP, 12-period EMA vs 20-period SMA. Rules 14–15: 5 minutes or less to expiry, price at least 0.88 or at most 0.12, spread at or under 0.03, price vs 15-minute high/low, velocity sign.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M bitcoin market, checking every 10 seconds with a 50-contract position cap. It buys 25-contract YES or NO positions when BTC price, momentum, and spread conditions line up, then sells everything based on tiered profit or loss thresholds tied to position size.

This strategy trades Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin market, checking conditions every 10 seconds with a 50-contract position limit. It buys yes or no contracts in 25-lot sizes when Coinbase BTC price, momentum, and velocity signals line up within certain price and spread ranges. It sells the whole position when unrealized profit or loss hits tiers based on how many contracts are held.

This strategy trades Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets, checking conditions every 10 seconds and capping positions at 100 contracts with YES prices between 0.20 and 0.80. It buys 50 contracts of YES or NO when Bitcoin price, momentum, and velocity signals line up with a tight spread, and sells the entire position at tiered profit targets or stop-loss levels based on position size.

This strategy trades Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets, checking every 10 seconds with a maximum of 40 contracts and prices allowed from 0.01 to 0.99. Rules run top to bottom, so the first match wins: it skips when already at 40 contracts, sells everything at tiered profit or loss levels based on position size, and otherwise buys 20 contracts of yes or no when Bitcoin price, trend, momentum, and market conditions line up.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, evaluated every 10 seconds with a 50-contract cap and 0.01-0.99 price bounds. Rules fire top-to-bottom, first match ends the tick. Rule 1 skips at position 50 or more. Exits sell all, gated per position tier. Rules 2-3 take profit when price is 0.10-0.90: above 1.2 PnL for positions up to 10; above 1.8 for 11-30. Rule 4 sells at 31+ once PnL exceeds 5. Rules 5-7 stop losses: below -2.5 up to 10 contracts; below -4 for 11-30; below -6 for 31+. Entries require position 25 or less and buy 25. Rules 8-9 buy yes/no when BTC price is above/below both its 1-hour VWAP and 12-bar 1-minute EMA, 5-minute change beyond 0.001, 1-minute velocity matching direction, price 0.35-0.65, spread 0.015 or less. Rules 10-11 buy yes/no on 5-minute change beyond 0.0015 with matching velocity, price 0.20-0.80, same spread. Rules 12-13, only within 5 minutes of expiry, buy yes/no with price 0.40-0.60, change and velocity aligned, price above/below VWAP, and 12-bar EMA above/below 20-bar SMA. Rules 14-15, also within 5 minutes, buy yes at price 0.88 or higher (no at 0.12 or lower) with spread 0.03 or less, BTC at its 15-minute high (low), and velocity aligned.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, this strategy checks every 10 seconds and allows up to 50 contracts, with YES prices between 0.01 and 0.99. Rules are checked in order and the first match ends that tick. If position size is at least 50, it skips. It sells all when size is 10 or less and unrealized profit exceeds 1.2 with price between 0.10 and 0.90; when size is 11 to 30 and profit exceeds 1.8 with price in that range; or when size is at least 31 and profit exceeds 5. It also sells all on losses: size 10 or less below -2.5, size 11 to 30 below -4, size 31 or more below -6. With size at 25 or less, it can buy 25 contracts of YES or NO on several Bitcoin signals from Coinbase: price versus one-hour VWAP and the 12-period one-minute EMA with 5-minute change above 0.001 or below -0.001 and velocity sign, at prices 0.35 to 0.65; stronger 5-minute moves above 0.0015 or below -0.0015 at prices 0.20 to 0.80; within 5 minutes of expiry with price 0.40 to 0.60 and trend alignment; or within 5 minutes of expiry at price 0.88 or higher, or 0.12 or lower, touching the 15-minute high or low. All entries require spread at or below 0.015, except the last two, which allow 0.03.

It trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M market, evaluating every 10 seconds with Bitcoin data refreshed every 5 seconds. It buys yes or no contracts when BTC momentum, moving-average alignment, price, spread, and time-to-expiry conditions are met, up to a 50-contract max and 25 per entry. It exits all positions when tiered unrealized profit or loss limits are reached based on position size.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, this strategy evaluates every 10 seconds, caps positions at 100 contracts, and fires only the first matching rule per tick. Rule 1 skips when position size is at least 100. Rules 2-4 sell all on profit: at size 25 or less with unrealized PnL above 10 and price between 0.10 and 0.90; at size 26-60 with PnL above 15 and price 0.10-0.90; at size 61+ with PnL above 25. Rules 5-7 sell all on loss: size 25 or less below -15; size 26-60 below -25; size 61+ below -35. Entries require size 45 or less and buy 50 contracts: rules 8/9 buy yes/no when price is above/below both 1-hour VWAP and 12-minute EMA with 5-minute change beyond ±0.001, velocity matching direction, price 0.35-0.65, spread at most 0.015. Rules 10/11 buy yes/no on 5-minute change beyond ±0.0015 with matching velocity, price 0.20-0.80, same spread. Rules 12/13, only within 5 minutes of expiry, buy yes/no at price 0.40-0.60 with change, velocity, and VWAP/EMA-versus-SMA20 alignment. Rules 14/15, also within 5 minutes of expiry, buy yes at price 0.88+ or no at 0.12 or below when BTC is at its 15-minute high/low with matching velocity and spread at most 0.03.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, this strategy evaluates every 10 seconds, with a 100-contract position cap and YES prices from 0.01 to 0.99. Rules run top-to-bottom, first match fires. Rule 1 skips at 100 contracts. Rules 2 and 3 sell everything when unrealized profit exceeds 2 (size up to 25) or 3 (size 26 to 60) with price between 0.10 and 0.90; Rule 4 sells all when size is 65-plus and profit exceeds 5. Rules 5 and 6 sell all at losses beyond 3 (size up to 25) or 5 (size 26 to 60); Rule 7 sells all when size is 65-plus and loss exceeds 7. Rules 8 through 15 buy only when size is 45 or less: long entries need BTC above 1-hour VWAP and 1-minute EMA with 5-minute change above 0.001 and positive 1-minute velocity, price 0.35 to 0.65, spread at most 0.015, buying 50 YES; the mirror buys 50 NO. Rules 10 and 11 use 0.0015 change and price 0.20 to 0.80. Rules 12 and 13 require expiry within 5 minutes, price 0.40 to 0.60, and EMA above SMA; Rules 14 and 15 require expiry within 5 minutes, price at least 0.88 or at most 0.12, spread at most 0.03, price at 15-minute high or low, and matching velocity. Entries are immediate-or-cancel.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M bitcoin market, checking conditions every 10 seconds with a 40-contract cap. It buys YES or NO in 20-contract lots when bitcoin's price, moving averages, and short-term momentum line up (rules 8-15), but only while holding 18 contracts or fewer. It exits by selling everything when unrealized profit or loss crosses thresholds that vary by position size (rules 2-7), and skips entirely at the 40-contract limit (rule 1).

This Kalshi strategy trades the KXBTC15M series, evaluating every 10 seconds against BTC-USD data refreshed every 5 seconds, with a 60-contract position limit and YES prices bounded between 0.01 and 0.99. Rules run top to bottom and the first match ends the tick: Rule 1 skips when position size is at least 60. Rules 2 through 4 sell everything on profit gates tied to size bands (up to 15 contracts with unrealized profit above 6 and price between 0.10 and 0.90; 18 to 36 contracts with profit above 9 and the same price band; 39 or more with profit above 15). Rules 5 through 7 sell everything on stop gates by the same size bands (down more than 9, 15, and 21 respectively). Rules 8 through 13 buy 30 contracts only when size is 27 or less: trend entries versus VWAP and the 12-period EMA with price 0.35 to 0.65 and spread at most 0.015; acceleration entries on 5-minute change and velocity with price 0.20 to 0.80; and final-5-minutes entries with price 0.40 to 0.60. Rules 14 and 15 buy 30 contracts in the last 5 minutes when price is at least 0.88 or at most 0.12, spread at most 0.03, and price sits at the 15-minute high or low with matching velocity.

This strategy trades Kalshi's BTC 15-minute market, checking every 10 seconds across up to 30 contracts. It exits first when profit or loss hits tiered thresholds based on position size, then buys 10 contracts of YES or NO when Bitcoin's price, trend, and momentum signals line up within set price and spread bands.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series this strategy evaluates every 10 seconds, capped at 40 contracts with YES prices between 0.01 and 0.99, using Coinbase BTC-USD data. Rules run top to bottom; the first match fires and ends the tick. Rule 1 skips when position size is at least 40. Rules 2-4 sell all on profit: size 10 or less with P&L above 4 and price 0.10-0.90; size 12-24 with P&L above 6 and price 0.10-0.90; size 26+ with P&L above 10. Rules 5-7 sell all on loss: size 10 or less below -6; size 12-24 below -10; size 26+ below -14. Entries require size 18 or less and size 20: Rule 8 buys YES when BTC is above 1h VWAP and 12-period 1m EMA, 5m change above 0.001, velocity positive, price 0.35-0.65, spread 0.015 or less; Rule 9 mirrors it for NO. Rules 10-11 buy on 5m change beyond ±0.0015 with velocity, price 0.20-0.80, spread 0.015 or less. Rules 12-13 act within 5 minutes of expiry with price 0.40-0.60, change, velocity, VWAP and EMA/SMA alignment, spread 0.015 or less. Rules 14-15 act within 5 minutes with price at least 0.88 (YES) or at most 0.12 (NO), spread 0.03 or less, BTC at the 15m high/low, and velocity aligned.

On Kalshi's 15-minute bitcoin market, this strategy checks conditions every 10 seconds, capped at 30 contracts. Rules run in order: it skips when full at 30, sells everything at tiered profit or loss thresholds based on position size, and otherwise buys 10 contracts of YES or NO when bitcoin price, trend, momentum, and market price/spread conditions line up, including near-expiry setups.

This strategy trades Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin market, checking every 10 seconds with a 500-contract limit. It buys either YES or NO in small size-2 orders when Bitcoin's price, momentum, and spread line up with the rules, and sells everything when unrealized profit or loss crosses tiers based on how large the position is.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, this strategy checks conditions every 10 seconds and applies its rules in order, stopping at the first match. Positions are capped at 40 contracts, with a $10 entry spend cap per market that is not released by later sells. When position size reaches 40 contracts, it skips. It sells all when unrealized profit exceeds $2 on up to 15 contracts (with price between 0.10 and 0.90), exceeds $3 on 16 to 30 contracts (same price band), or exceeds $8 on 31 or more contracts. It also sells all on losses: below -$4 on up to 15 contracts, below -$6 on 16 to 30, or below -$10 on 31 or more. When holding 20 contracts or fewer, it buys 10 contracts of YES or NO depending on whether Bitcoin's live price, five-minute change, and one-minute velocity are rising or falling relative to its hourly VWAP and short-term averages, with spread and market-price bands varying by rule; several entries also require five minutes or less to expiration, and two late rules allow wider spreads and require Bitcoin at a 15-minute high or low.

Trades Kalshi KXBTC15M, checked every 10 seconds, capped at 10 contracts, prices 0.01–0.99. Rules run top to bottom; the first match fires. Rule 1 skips at 10+ contracts. Rules 2–4 sell all: with 2 or fewer contracts and profit above 0.24 when price is 0.10–0.90; with 3–6 contracts and profit above 0.36 in that same band; with 7+ and profit above 1.0. Rules 5–7 sell all at losses below 0.5 (2 or fewer), 0.8 (3–6), and 1.2 (7+). Rules 8–9 buy 5 YES/NO with 5 or fewer contracts, only if price is above/below both 1-hour VWAP and 12-minute EMA, 5-minute change beyond 0.0010, velocity matching direction, price 0.35–0.65, spread 0.015 or less. Rules 10–11 buy 5 on 5-minute change beyond 0.0015 with matching velocity, price 0.20–0.80, spread 0.015 or less. Rules 12–13, within 5 minutes of expiry, buy 5 in the 0.40–0.60 band with momentum and EMA above/below 20-minute SMA. Rules 14–15 buy 5 near expiry at 0.88+ or 0.12−, spread 0.03 or less, at the 15-minute high/low with matching velocity. All entries are immediate-or-cancel.

On Kalshi's BTC 15-minute market it checks every 10 seconds, capped at 20 contracts. It buys 10-contract yes or no positions when BTC price, momentum and short-term trend align with a tight spread, and sells everything on tiered profit targets or losses.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M bitcoin market, checking conditions every 10 seconds with a maximum position of 20 contracts. It exits first: rules 1 through 7 skip when fully loaded or sell everything when unrealized profit or loss hits thresholds that vary by position size (for example, a small position sells at +2 or -3). If no exit fires and the position is 9 or fewer contracts, rules 8 through 15 buy 10 contracts of YES or NO based on bitcoin price versus its VWAP, EMA, and SMA lines, short-term change and velocity, plus the market's price and spread.

This strategy trades Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin market, checking every 10 seconds against live Coinbase BTC price, trend, and momentum data while capping positions at 20 contracts. It buys 10-contract positions (YES or NO) when short-term BTC momentum, trend, or price-level signals line up with the market price and a tight spread, and it exits everything when profit targets or loss limits tied to position size are hit.

This Kalshi strategy trades the KXBTC15M series, checking every 10 seconds, with a 20-contract position limit and a 0.01–0.99 YES price band. Rules run top to bottom; the first match fires and ends the tick. Rule 1 skips at position 20 or more. Rules 2–4 sell all on profit: with position up to 5 and unrealized profit above 2 plus price between 0.10 and 0.90; with position 6–12 and profit above 3 plus the same price band; with position 13 or more and profit above 5, no price gate. Rules 5–7 sell all on loss: position up to 5 and loss below 3; position 6–12 and loss below 5; position 13 or more and loss below 7, no price gates. Rules 8–13 buy 10 contracts (yes or no, mirrored) when position is 9 or less, spread at most 0.015, and BTC conditions: price signals above or below average and trend measures; stronger five-minute moves; near-expiry entries within 5 minutes at prices 0.40–0.60 with trend alignment. Rules 14–15 buy 10 when position is 9 or less, expiry is within 5 minutes, spread at most 0.03, price at least 0.88 (or at most 0.12), and price near the 15-minute high (or low) with matching velocity.