Position-Graded Profit Ratchet

Starter is $49/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This Kalshi strategy trades the KXBTC15M Bitcoin market, checking conditions every 10 seconds with a 100-contract position limit and YES prices restricted to 0.01–0.99. Rules run top to bottom and the first match ends that tick: at 100 contracts it skips; exits sell the whole position based on position size and unrealized profit or loss (profit above 2.4, 3.6, or 10, or loss below -5, -8, or -12, depending on size tiers, with an added price 0.10–0.90 condition on the two smaller profit tiers). Entries of 50 contracts, using immediate-or-cancel orders, occur only when position is 50 or below and Bitcoin data from Coinbase meets momentum, price, and spread (at most 0.015, or 0.03 for late entries) conditions; six entry rules buy YES or NO on price versus VWAP and moving averages, acceleration, or within 5 minutes of expiry using recent highs and lows.

Kalshi·Sep 19 to Oct 19 UTC·Created 8d ago

Net P&L

+$3,853

Return +3852.6% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.72

Return Sharpe

Win rate

64.1%

3129 trades

Max drawdown

-$469

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.