Prediction Market Strategies & Backtests

On Kalshi's 15-minute DOGE market, this strategy checks every 10 seconds. It buys 30 contracts of YES or NO in the final 35 seconds before expiry when the ask sits between 0.91 and 0.99 and the spread is 0.03 or less, sells any open position once that side's best bid falls to 0.55 or below, and cancels all orders at expiry.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXDOGE15M market and re-checks every 10 seconds, with a maximum position of 30 contracts. It enters by buying yes or no in the final 30 seconds before expiry when the spread is 0.03 or tighter and the ask sits between 0.91 and 0.99. It sells an existing yes position if that bid falls to 0.55 or below, sells an existing no position on the same condition, and cancels everything at expiry.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXDOGE15M series, checking conditions every 10 seconds. Rules are checked in order, and the first one that matches fires and ends that check. If the account holds YES contracts and the YES best bid is at or below 0.55, it sells the YES position; if it holds NO contracts and the NO best bid is at or below 0.55, it sells the NO position. With no position open, it can enter only in the last 25 seconds before expiry (and not after it passes): if the spread is 0.03 or less and the YES best ask is between 0.91 and 0.99, it buys 30 YES contracts; if the spread is 0.03 or less and the NO best ask is between 0.91 and 0.99, it buys 30 NO contracts; only the first matching entry rule fires per tick. Once time to expiry reaches zero, it cancels all open orders. Position size is capped at 30 contracts, prices outside 0.91 to 0.99 are not entered, and other runtime checks may block orders.