Prediction Market Strategies & Backtests

This strategy trades Kalshi's 15-minute BNB market series, checking conditions every 10 seconds. It reads BNB-USD price data from Coinbase, refreshing every 10 seconds, comparing the current price against its one-hour VWAP, 12-period one-minute EMA, and 20-period one-minute SMA, plus the five-minute change and one-minute velocity. Rules are checked in order and the first match wins. If holding YES contracts and the YES best bid is 0.55 or lower, it sells YES; if holding NO contracts and the NO best bid is 0.55 or lower, it sells NO. With no position, five minutes or less remaining before expiry (but not past it), a spread of 0.03 or less, and an ask between 0.89 and 0.99, it buys 30 YES when price is above all three moving averages with positive five-minute change and velocity, or 30 NO when price is below all three with negative change and velocity. Once expiry passes, it cancels all orders. Position size is capped at 30 contracts.

This strategy trades Kalshi's 15-minute BNB markets (series KXBNB15M), checking conditions every 10 seconds. It may hold up to 30 contracts. It evaluates five rules in order, and the first one whose conditions all hold fires and ends that tick. Rule 1 sells the YES position when YES contracts are held and the YES best bid is at or below 0.55. Rule 2 sells the NO position when NO contracts are held and the NO best bid is at or below 0.55. Rule 3 buys 30 YES contracts when no position is held, expiry is between 3 minutes away and zero, the spread is at most 0.03, the YES best ask sits between 0.89 and 0.99, and BNB's Coinbase price exceeds its 1-hour VWAP, 1-minute EMA, and 20-minute SMA, with 5-minute change and 1-minute velocity both above zero. Rule 4 mirrors this for 30 NO contracts, requiring the NO ask in the same 0.89-0.99 band and the BNB price below those three averages with negative 5-minute change and 1-minute velocity. Rule 5 cancels all orders once expiry is reached.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBNB15M series, a 15-minute BNB market, checking conditions every 10 seconds and capping positions at 30 contracts with YES and NO prices between 0.89 and 0.99. It holds at most one position at a time: entries only fire when total position size is zero. Rules run top to bottom, first match wins. Rule 1 sells an existing YES position if YES size is above zero and the YES best bid is at or below 0.55. Rule 2 does the same for a NO position, selling NO if NO size is above zero and the NO best bid is at or below 0.55. Rules 3 and 4 enter only in the final 5 minutes before expiry, when time to expiry is between 5 minutes and 0 seconds and the spread is at or below 0.03. Rule 3 buys 30 YES when the YES ask sits within 0.89–0.99 and Coinbase BNB price is above its 1-hour VWAP, 1-minute EMA, and 1-minute 20-period SMA, with 5-minute change and 1-minute velocity both positive. Rule 4 buys 30 NO on the mirror conditions: NO ask within 0.89–0.99 and BNB price below all three averages with change and velocity negative. Both entries use immediate-or-cancel execution. Rule 5 cancels all orders once time to expiry reaches 0 seconds.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBNB15M market, checking conditions every 10 seconds against Coinbase BNB-USD data refreshed on the same cadence. Rules run top to bottom and the first match fires. Rule 1 sells the YES position when YES size is above 0 and the YES best bid is at or below 0.55; Rule 2 does the same for NO when NO size is above 0 and the NO best bid is at or below 0.55. Rule 3 buys 10 YES only when position size is 0, expiry is between 5 minutes and 0 seconds away, spread is 0.03 or less, YES best ask is between 0.89 and 0.99, and BNB price exceeds its 1-hour VWAP, 12-period 1-minute EMA and 20-period 1-minute SMA while 5-minute change and 1-minute velocity are both positive. Rule 4 mirrors this for 10 NO contracts with the opposite price comparisons and negative change and velocity. Rule 5 cancels all orders once expiry is reached. Position is capped at 10 contracts, entry spend at $10 notional per market, and one entry per market, with spent budget not released by later sells.

On Kalshi's KXBNB15M series, this strategy evaluates every 10 seconds and caps positions at 90 contracts, only acting on YES or NO prices between 0.89 and 0.99. Rules run top to bottom and the first match ends the tick. Rule 1 sells an existing YES position when its size is above zero and the YES best bid is at or below 0.55; Rule 2 does the same for a NO position at or below 0.55. With no position, Rule 3 buys 90 YES contracts in the last five minutes before expiry when the spread is at most 0.03 cents-worth (0.03), the YES ask sits in the 0.89-0.99 band, and BNB spot price is above its 1-hour VWAP, 12-period 1-minute EMA, and 20-period 1-minute SMA, with positive 5-minute change and positive 1-minute velocity. Rule 4 mirrors this for 90 NO contracts when price is below all three trend measures with negative change and velocity. Rule 5 cancels all orders once time to expiry reaches zero or less.