Prediction Market Strategies & Backtests

On Kalshi's BNB 15-minute markets, this strategy checks every 10 seconds, capped at 30 contracts per position. It buys YES or NO only in the final 30 seconds before expiry when the spread is 0.03 or less and that side's ask sits between 0.91 and 0.99, and it sells an open side if its best bid falls to 0.55 or below. Once time to expiry reaches zero it cancels all resting orders.

This strategy trades 15-minute BNB markets on Kalshi, checking every 10 seconds. It enters near expiry, buying 30 contracts of YES or NO when no position is open, 32 seconds or less remain, the spread is 0.03 or tighter, and the ask is between 0.91 and 0.99. It exits by selling an existing YES or NO position once its best bid falls to 0.55 or below, and cancels all orders at expiry.

This strategy trades Kalshi's BNB 15-minute markets, checking conditions every 10 seconds. It sells an existing YES or NO position if that side's best bid falls to 0.55 or below, and it buys 30 contracts of YES or NO only in the final 25 seconds before expiry when the spread is 0.03 or tighter and the ask sits between 0.91 and 0.99. At expiry it cancels all open orders, and position size is capped at 30 contracts.

On Kalshi's KXBNB15M series, this strategy checks every 10 seconds, with a maximum position of 30 contracts and yes-price entries allowed only between 0.91 and 0.99. Rules are checked in order and the first match ends that tick. Rule 1 sells an existing yes position when the yes position size is above zero and the yes best bid is at or below 0.55. Rule 2 sells an existing no position when the no position size is above zero and the no best bid is at or below 0.55. Rule 3 buys 30 yes contracts only when the total position is zero, time to expiry is between 20 seconds and 0 seconds, the spread is at most 0.03, and the yes best ask is between 0.91 and 0.99. Rule 4 buys 30 no contracts under the same flat-position, time, and spread conditions when the no best ask is between 0.91 and 0.99. Rule 5 cancels all orders once time to expiry reaches zero or less.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBNB15M series and evaluates every 10 seconds. Rules are checked in order, and the first match ends that tick. Rule 1 sells the YES position if YES size is above zero and the YES best bid is at or below 0.50. Rule 2 sells the NO position if NO size is above zero and the NO best bid is at or below 0.50. Rule 3 buys 25 YES contracts only when position size is zero, time to expiry is between 0 and 180 seconds, spread is at most 0.03, and the YES best ask is between 0.85 and 0.98. Rule 4 does the same for 25 NO contracts under the same expiry, spread, and zero-position conditions, with the NO best ask between 0.85 and 0.98. Rule 5 cancels all orders once time to expiry reaches zero. Position size is capped at 50 contracts, and entry spending is capped at 100 dollars per market, with spent budget not released by later sells.