Prediction Market Strategies & Backtests

On Kalshi's KXNEAR15M series it evaluates every 10 seconds, checking its rules in order and acting on the first one that matches. If it holds YES contracts and the YES best bid is at or below 0.55, it sells the YES position; if it holds NO contracts and the NO best bid is at or below 0.55, it sells the NO position. When it holds nothing, at most 45 seconds remain, the spread is 0.03 or less, and the NO best ask sits between 0.91 and 0.99, it buys 100 NO contracts; the mirror rule buys 100 YES contracts when flat, at most 45 seconds remain, the spread is 0.03 or less, and the YES best ask is between 0.91 and 0.99. Once time to expiry reaches zero it cancels all resting orders. Position size is capped at 100 contracts, with prices bounded between 0.91 and 0.99.

On Kalshi's KXNEAR15M series, this strategy evaluates every 10 seconds with a maximum position of 100 contracts and a permitted YES price range of 0.91 to 0.99; other runtime checks may also block orders. Rules run top to bottom, and the first match ends that tick. Rule 1 sells the YES position when YES size is above zero and the YES best bid is at or below 0.55. Rule 2 sells the NO position when NO size is above zero and the NO best bid is at or below 0.55. Rule 3 buys 100 NO contracts when total position size is zero, 35 seconds or less remain, the spread is at most 0.03, and the NO best ask sits between 0.91 and 0.99. Rule 4 buys 100 YES contracts under the same conditions using the YES best ask. Rule 5 cancels all orders once expiry is reached.

On Kalshi's KXNEAR15M series, this strategy evaluates every 10 seconds, capped at 20 contracts and restricted to prices between 0.91 and 0.99. Rules run in order, and the first match ends that tick. If it holds YES contracts and the YES best bid falls to 0.55 or below, it sells the YES position; if it holds NO contracts and the NO best bid is 0.55 or below, it sells the NO position. With no position open, 45 seconds or less remaining, a spread of 0.03 or less, and the NO best ask between 0.91 and 0.99, it buys 20 NO contracts. The same flat, 45-second, spread, and price conditions on the YES best ask trigger buying 20 YES contracts. At zero or less time to expiry, it cancels all resting orders.

On Kalshi's KXNEAR15M series this strategy checks every 10 seconds and works through five rules in order, stopping at the first one that matches. If it holds YES contracts and the YES best bid is at or below 0.55, it sells the YES position. If it holds NO contracts and the NO best bid is at or below 0.55, it sells the NO position. With no position open, 40 seconds or less until expiry, a spread of 0.03 or less, and a NO best ask between 0.91 and 0.99, it buys 20 NO contracts. The same setup on the YES side, with a YES best ask between 0.91 and 0.99, buys 20 YES contracts. Once time to expiry reaches zero or less, it cancels all resting orders. Position size is capped at 20 contracts, and orders are only placed inside the 0.91 to 0.99 price band.

On Kalshi's KXNEAR15M market, this strategy checks conditions every 10 seconds, with a maximum position of 20 contracts and entry prices confined to 0.91 through 0.99. Rules are evaluated in order, and the first match ends that tick. If a YES position is open and the YES best bid is at or below 0.55, it sells the YES position. If a NO position is open and the NO best bid is at or below 0.55, it sells the NO position. With no position open, 50 seconds or less to expiry, a spread of 0.03 or less, and a NO best ask between 0.91 and 0.99, it buys 20 NO contracts. Under the same no-position, time, and spread conditions, with a YES best ask between 0.91 and 0.99, it buys 20 YES contracts. At or past expiry, it cancels all orders.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXNEAR15M market and checks conditions every 10 seconds, capped at 20 contracts. It buys 20 contracts of NO when there is no open position, expiry is 35 seconds or less, the spread is at most 0.03, and the NO ask is between 0.91 and 0.99, or buys 20 YES under the same conditions using the YES ask. It exits by selling YES or NO if that side's position exists and its best bid falls to 0.55 or below, and cancels all orders at expiry.

On Kalshi's KXNEAR15M series, this strategy checks the market every 10 seconds and allows up to 10 contracts total, buying only when the YES or NO price sits between 0.91 and 0.99. It evaluates rules in order and stops at the first match. If it holds YES contracts and the YES best bid falls to 0.55 or below, it sells the YES position; if it holds NO contracts and the NO best bid falls to 0.55 or below, it sells the NO position. When it holds nothing, with 30 seconds or less to expiry, a spread of 0.03 or less, and the NO best ask between 0.91 and 0.99, it buys 10 NO contracts. The same setup on the YES side—empty position, 30 seconds or less left, spread at or under 0.03, YES best ask between 0.91 and 0.99—buys 10 YES contracts. At or past expiry, it cancels all resting orders.

On Kalshi's KXNEAR15M series, this strategy checks conditions every 10 seconds and is capped at 10 contracts, with allowed YES prices between 0.91 and 0.99. Rules are checked in order and the first match ends that cycle. Rule 1: if holding YES and the YES best bid is at or below 0.55, sell the YES position. Rule 2: if holding NO and the NO best bid is at or below 0.55, sell the NO position. Rule 3: with no position, 25 seconds or less to expiry, a spread of 0.03 or less, and the NO best ask between 0.91 and 0.99, buy 10 NO. Rule 4: with no position, 25 seconds or less to expiry, a spread of 0.03 or less, and the YES best ask between 0.91 and 0.99, buy 10 YES. Rule 5: at expiry, cancel all orders. Additional runtime checks may block orders.

On Kalshi's KXNEAR15M series, this strategy checks every 10 seconds. Positions are capped at 10 contracts and entry prices must fall between 0.91 and 0.99. Rules run in order, and the first match ends the tick. If a YES position exists and the YES bid is at or below 0.55, it sells YES; if a NO position exists and the NO bid is at or below 0.55, it sells NO. With no position open, 35 seconds or less to expiry, a spread of 0.03 or tighter, and a NO ask between 0.91 and 0.99, it buys 10 NO. The same conditions with a YES ask between 0.91 and 0.99 instead buy 10 YES. At or past expiry it cancels all orders.