Prediction Market Strategies & Backtests

On Kalshi's KXXRP15M series, evaluated every 10 seconds with a 100-contract cap and 0.01–0.99 price bounds. Rules run top-to-bottom, first match fires. Entry orders are immediate-or-cancel, 25 contracts each: buy yes when XRP price exceeds both its 1-hour VWAP and 12-period 1-minute EMA, 5-minute change above 0.001, 1-minute velocity positive, yes ask 0.35–0.65, spread at most 0.015; buy no on the mirror condition with no ask 0.35–0.65. Momentum entries use a 0.0015 change threshold and ask range 0.20–0.80. With 5 minutes or less to expiry: buy yes if yes ask 0.40–0.60 with rising price/velocity above VWAP and EMA above SMA; buy no mirrored; or buy yes if yes ask at least 0.88, spread at most 0.03, high_15m and price above 15; buy no if no ask at most 0.12, spread at most 0.03, low_15m and price above 15. Exits are tiered by position size: at 25 or fewer, sell on unrealized PnL above 15 (price 0.10–0.90) or below -25; at 30–50, sell above 25 (price 0.10–0.90) or below -50; at 55–75, sell above 50 or below -60; at 80 or more, sell above 75 or below -75. Sizes above 100 are skipped.

Trades Kalshi's KXXRP15M market, checked every 10 seconds against Coinbase XRP data refreshed every 5 seconds. Position limit is 60 contracts; YES prices must be 0.01–0.99. Rules run top to bottom, first match fires. If size exceeds 60, skip. Exits sell the entire position only when size falls in a specific band: for size ≤5, take profit above 9 unrealized PnL (price 0.10–0.90) or stop below −15; for 6–10, above 15 (price 0.10–0.90) or below −30; for 11–15, above 30 or below −36; for 16+, above 45 or below −45. Entries buy 15 contracts, immediate-or-cancel: YES when price beats 1h VWAP and 12-EMA, 5-minute change above 0.001, velocity up, ask 0.35–0.65, spread ≤0.015; the NO mirror below VWAP/EMA with change under −0.001. Faster momentum buys YES on change above 0.0015 with ask 0.20–0.80, NO mirrored. With 5 minutes or less to expiry, YES needs ask 0.40–0.60, positive change and velocity, price above VWAP, 12-EMA above 20-SMA; NO mirrored. Also near expiry, YES buys at ask 0.88+ when spread ≤0.03 and 15-minute high and price exceed 15; NO at ask 0.12 or less with low and price above 15.

On Kalshi's KXXRP15M market, evaluated every 10 seconds with XRP data refreshed every 5 seconds, the first matching rule fires and ends the tick. If position size exceeds 50 the tick is skipped. Exits are per-fill profit and stop gates by size band: size 13 or less sells all if unrealized profit exceeds 8 (price 0.10–0.90) or loss exceeds 13; size 15–25 sells all at profit above 13 (price 0.10–0.90) or loss above 25; size 28–38 sells all at profit above 25 or loss above 30; size 40+ sells all at profit above 38 or loss above 38. Entries buy 13 contracts: YES when XRP is above its 1-hour VWAP and 12-minute EMA with 5-minute change above 0.001 and positive velocity (ask 0.35–0.65); NO when price is below both with change under -0.001 and negative velocity (ask 0.35–0.65); faster momentum entries (change beyond 0.0015, ask 0.20–0.80); within 5 minutes of expiry at ask 0.40–0.60 with moving averages aligned; and late-momentum YES at ask 0.88+ with 15-minute high above 15 or NO at ask 0.12 or below with low above 15. All entries require spread at most 0.015, except late entries allow 0.03, and use immediate-or-cancel.

On Kalshi's KXXRP15M market, evaluated every 10 seconds with a 20-contract cap and 0.01-0.99 price bounds, rules run top to bottom, first match wins. Rules 2-5 sell all on unrealized profit above 3/5/10/15 at size tiers 0-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16+ (tier 1-2 also require price 0.10-0.90). Rules 6-9 sell all on unrealized loss beyond -5/-10/-12/-15 at those same tiers. Rules 10-11 buy 5 YES/NO when XRP price is above/below its vwap_1h and ema_12_1m, change_5m beyond ±0.001, velocity sign matches, and the respective best ask is 0.35-0.65 with spread ≤0.015. Rules 12-13 buy 5 on change_5m beyond ±0.0015 with matching velocity and best ask 0.20-0.80, spread ≤0.015. Rules 14-15, within 5 minutes of expiry, buy 5 with best ask 0.40-0.60, matching change and velocity signs, price vs vwap_1h, and ema_12_1m vs sma_20_1m, spread ≤0.015. Rules 16-17, within 5 minutes, buy 5 with best ask ≥0.88 or ≤0.12, spread ≤0.03, high_15m or low_15m above 15, and price above 15. Entries use immediate-or-cancel. Rule 1 skips when position exceeds 20.