Prediction Market Strategies & Backtests

This trades 15-minute Kalshi HYPE markets and checks conditions every 10 seconds. It enters by buying 30 contracts of YES (rule 3) or NO (rule 4) only when no position is open, 30 seconds or less remain before expiry, the spread is 0.03 or tighter, and the ask price sits between 0.91 and 0.99. It exits by selling an existing YES position when its best bid falls to 0.55 or lower (rule 1) or a NO position on the same bid condition (rule 2), and cancels all orders at expiry (rule 5).

This strategy trades Kalshi HYPE 15-minute markets, checking conditions every 10 seconds. It sells an existing YES or NO position if that side's best bid falls to 0.55 or below. Otherwise, when flat with 25 seconds or less to expiry and a spread of 0.03 or tighter, it buys 30 contracts of whichever side is priced between 0.91 and 0.99; once expiry passes it cancels all orders.

This Kalshi strategy trades the KXHYPE15M market, checking conditions every 10 seconds with a maximum position of 10 contracts and a YES price band of 0.91 to 0.99. Rules run in order and the first match ends that tick. Rule 1 sells YES when a YES position exists and the YES best bid is at or below 0.55; Rule 2 sells NO when a NO position exists and the NO best bid is at or below 0.55. Rules 3 and 4 enter only when position size is zero, time to expiry is between 0 and 30 seconds, spread is at most 0.03, and the relevant best ask (YES for Rule 3, NO for Rule 4) is between 0.91 and 0.99, buying 10 contracts of that side. Rule 5 cancels all orders once time to expiry is zero or less. Other runtime checks may prevent orders.

On Kalshi's KXHYPE15M series, this strategy checks every 10 seconds and caps positions at 100 contracts. Rules are checked in order, and the first match ends that tick. If a YES position is open and the YES best bid is at or below 0.55, it sells YES; if a NO position is open and the NO best bid is at or below 0.55, it sells NO. With no position open, and when expiry is between 0 and 25 seconds away, the spread is at most 0.03, and the YES best ask sits between 0.91 and 0.99, it buys 100 YES as an immediate-or-cancel order; the matching NO version buys 100 NO under the same timing, spread, and price-band conditions on the NO ask. Once expiry reaches zero or less, it cancels all orders. Each fill's profit or stop gate applies per fill.