Prediction Market Strategies & Backtests

This Kalshi strategy trades BTC 15-minute markets, checking conditions every 10 seconds with a position limit of 1000 contracts and YES prices bounded between 0.01 and 0.99. Rules are evaluated top to bottom and the first match ends that tick. If position size exceeds 1001, it skips. Exit rules depend on position size tiers: with 200 or fewer contracts it sells all at unrealized profit above 12 or loss below -40; with 201 to 600 contracts it sells all at profit above 18 (only when price is between 0.10 and 0.90) or loss below -60; with 601 or more it sells all at profit above 50 or loss below -150. Entry rules require 7 minutes or less to expiry and tight spreads (0.015, or 0.03 for the last two). They buy YES or NO in 500-contract blocks based on combinations of BTC price versus its 1-hour VWAP and 12-period EMA, 5-minute change thresholds (0.001, 0.0015, or simply positive/negative), 1-minute velocity, EMA versus 20-period SMA, market price bands (0.35–0.65, 0.2–0.8, 0.4–0.6, or extremes near 0.88/0.12), and 15-minute high or low above 15.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M market (YES 0.01–0.99), checking every 10 seconds with a 500-contract cap. Rules run top to bottom, first match fires. Rule 1 skips if position size exceeds 501. Rule 2 sells all when size is 100 or less, unrealized P&L above 12, and price between 0.10 and 0.90. Rule 3 sells all when size is 101–300, P&L above 18, price 0.10–0.90. Rule 4 sells all when size is 301 or more and P&L above 50. Rule 5 sells all when size is 100 or less and P&L below -40. Rule 6 sells all when size is 101–300 and P&L below -60. Rule 7 sells all when size is 301 or more and P&L below -150. Rules 8–15 (only with 7 minutes or less to expiry) buy 100 contracts of YES or NO based on Bitcoin price versus VWAP, EMA, and SMA, 5-minute change, velocity, price bands, and spread limits, using Coinbase BTC-USD data.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, this strategy checks every 10 seconds and works through its rules in order, stopping at the first one that matches. It holds at most 500 contracts. If position size is above 501, it skips. Exit rules sell the entire position based on unrealized profit or loss, tiered by size: with 100 contracts or fewer it sells at profit above 12 (only when price is between 0.10 and 0.90) or loss below -40; with 101 to 300 contracts it sells at profit above 18 (price 0.10 to 0.90) or loss below -60; with 301 or more it sells at profit above 50 or loss below -150. Entry rules all require 7 minutes or less to expiry and act within the last minutes: several buy 250 contracts of YES or NO when bitcoin price, moving averages, 5-minute change, 1-minute velocity, contract price, and spread meet stated thresholds, with price windows of 0.35 to 0.65, 0.20 to 0.80, 0.40 to 0.60, or the extreme 0.88 and 0.12 cases.

This strategy trades 15-minute Kalshi BTC markets (KXBTC15M), re-evaluating every 10 seconds, with a position limit of 63 contracts and YES prices restricted to 0.01–0.99. Rules fire top-to-bottom, first match only. Rule 1 skips the tick if position size exceeds 63. Rules 2–4 sell everything at per-fill profit gates that scale with position size: up to 12 contracts needs unrealized profit above 1.5 with price between 0.10 and 0.90; 13–37 contracts needs above 2.25 with price between 0.10 and 0.90; 38 or more needs above 6.25. Rules 5–7 sell everything at loss gates: up to 12 contracts at unrealized loss below −5; 13–37 at below −7.5; 38 or more at below −18.75. Rules 8–15 only act when time to expiry is 7 minutes or less, buying 12 contracts per fill: yes or no depending on whether BTC price sits above or below its one-hour VWAP and 12-period one-minute EMA, combined with five-minute change and one-minute velocity thresholds, price bands from 0.20 to 0.88, and spread caps of 0.015 or 0.03. Rules 12–13 use a 20-period SMA comparison, and rules 14–15 use a 15-minute high/low above 15 with BTC price above 15.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M market, this strategy checks every 10 seconds and works through its rules in order, acting only on the first one that matches a tick. Position size is capped at 40 contracts, with YES prices limited to 0.01–0.99, one portfolio position, and one entry per market. If position size exceeds 40 it skips. Otherwise it exits all on per-fill gates: at 10 or fewer contracts, sell all if unrealized profit tops $6 and price is 0.10–0.90, or if loss is below -$20; at 11–25 contracts, sell all if profit tops $9 (price 0.10–0.90) or loss is below -$30; at 26 or more, sell all if profit tops $25 or loss is below -$75. Entries fire only when time to expiry is 7 minutes or less. Several rules buy 20 YES or 20 NO based on Bitcoin price versus its one-hour VWAP and 12-period one-minute EMA, 5-minute change, one-minute velocity, price bands, and spread limits of 0.015 or 0.03; the last two also require 15-minute high or low above 15 and price above 15. A separate loss limit can halt and liquidate only this strategy's Kalshi inventory.

Trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, evaluating every 10 seconds with a 50-contract limit and YES prices allowed from 0.01 to 0.99. Rules run top to bottom; only the first match fires per tick. Rule 1 skips when position size exceeds 51. Rules 2-4 sell all on profit: sizes up to 10 need profit above 1.2 with price between 0.10 and 0.90; sizes 11-30 need above 1.8 at that price band; sizes 31+ need above 5. Rules 5-7 sell all on loss: sizes up to 10 below -4; 11-30 below -6; 31+ below -15. Rules 8-15 buy size 10 only when time to expiry is 7 minutes or less: rule 8 buys YES on BTC price above both VWAP and EMA, change above 0.001, positive velocity, price 0.35-0.65, spread at most 0.015; rule 9 buys NO on the mirrored negatives. Rule 10 buys YES on change above 0.0015 and positive velocity, price 0.20-0.80, spread at most 0.015; rule 11 mirrors for NO. Rule 12 buys YES when price is 0.40-0.60, change and velocity positive, BTC above VWAP, EMA above SMA, spread at most 0.015; rule 13 mirrors for NO. Rule 14 buys YES at price 0.88 or higher, spread at most 0.03, 15-minute high and BTC price both above 15; rule 15 buys NO at price 0.12 or lower with low above 15 and price above 15.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, checking conditions every 10 seconds and allowing at most 40 contracts per position, with entries capped at one per market. Rules are evaluated top to bottom each tick, and the first match fires. Rule 1 skips trading when position size exceeds 40. Rules 2 through 4 take profit: with 10 or fewer contracts, sell all if unrealized gain exceeds 6 while price is between 0.10 and 0.90; with 11 to 25 contracts, sell all if gain exceeds 9 at that same price band; with 26 or more, sell all if gain exceeds 25. Rules 5 through 7 stop losses: sell all if loss exceeds 20 at 10 or fewer contracts, 30 at 11 to 25 contracts, or 75 at 26 or more. Rules 8 through 15 buy only within 7 minutes of expiry, size 20, when Bitcoin price signals, order price, and spread thresholds align: rule 8 buys YES and rule 9 buys NO on price relative to VWAP and EMA plus change and velocity; rules 10 and 11 buy YES or NO on stronger change with tighter bands; rules 12 and 13 add EMA-versus-SMA confirmation; rules 14 and 15 buy YES or NO at extreme prices with high/low checks. A $150 max loss can halt and liquidate only this strategy's attributed custom inventory.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M market, checking conditions every 10 seconds with a position cap of 21 contracts and YES prices limited to 0.01–0.99. Rules run top to bottom and the first match fires. Rule 1 skips the tick if position size exceeds 21. Rules 2–4 take profit by tier: 4 or fewer contracts sell all when unrealized PnL exceeds 0.5 and price sits between 0.10 and 0.90; 5–12 contracts sell all above 0.75 PnL with the same price band; 13 or more sell all above 2.0833 PnL. Rules 5–7 mirror this for losses: 4 or fewer sell all below -1.6667, 5–12 below -2.5, 13 or more below -6.25. Rules 8–15 are per-fill entries, each buying size 4, only when time to expiry is 7 minutes or less; several also require a maximum spread of 0.015 or 0.03.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M market it checks every 10 seconds, first skipping if position size exceeds 501, and otherwise selling everything on profit or loss thresholds that scale with position size. Entries come from eight buy rules, each placing 2 contracts, using Coinbase BTC price versus VWAP, EMA, SMA, 5-minute change, 1-minute velocity, spread, and price-band conditions, mostly when under 7 minutes to expiry. The position limit is 2 contracts, with prices bounded from 0.01 to 0.99.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M market this strategy checks every 10 seconds, with a 100-contract cap and 0.01–0.99 price bounds. Rules run top to bottom, first match wins. Rounding to the nearest size tier: at more than 501 contracts it skips; at 100 or fewer it sells everything once unrealized profit passes 0.40 with price 0.10–0.90, and bails if loss passes -0.60; at 101–300 it exits on profit above 18 or loss below -60, with price 0.10–0.90 on the profit side; at 301+ it exits on profit above 50 or loss below -150. Entries need at most 7 minutes to expiry, spread within 0.015 (0.03 in the last two), and each buys 15 contracts. Long setups require BTC price above its 1h VWAP and 12-period EMA with 5-minute change above 0.001 and positive velocity, price 0.35–0.65; the mirror trades long No. Faster momentum uses change beyond 0.0015, price 0.20–0.80. A middle band uses price 0.40–0.60 with change and velocity signs plus VWAP/EMA-vs-SMA alignment. The final pair buys Yes at price 0.88+ or No at 0.12 or below when BTC's 15-minute high or low and price both exceed 15.