Hypothetical results, not investment advice. All performance shown is from backtests on historical data and should be assumed to be overfit. Past performance, real or simulated, does not predict future results. Ojo Network Inc. is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, futures commission merchant, introducing broker, or commodity trading advisor. Trading prediction markets carries substantial risk, including total loss of funds. See the full Terms of Service before deploying.
Compare every parameter variant, sorted by net p&l. Open a row for the full backtest detail.
Hypothetical results, not investment advice. All performance shown is from backtests on historical data and should be assumed to be overfit. Past performance, real or simulated, does not predict future results. Ojo Network Inc. is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, futures commission merchant, introducing broker, or commodity trading advisor. Trading prediction markets carries substantial risk, including total loss of funds. See the full Terms of Service before deploying.
Range
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
This strategy trades Kalshi NYC high-temperature markets, checking every 60 seconds. It buys 5 YES contracts when the current temperature is above 71, the observation is under 90 minutes old, and the price is below 0.5. It sells everything if the prior hour's temperature exceeds 72 while price is above 0.66, if under 45 minutes remain, or if unrealized loss passes 20, with positions capped at 100 contracts.
Net P&L +$22+21.9% return
Sharpe 0.02
Win 37.9%
Aug 20
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses risk capital: the larger of the max-position limit and the most the run had in play at once, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
On Kalshi it checks New York high-temperature markets every 60 seconds. It buys 5 yes contracts when the current temperature is above 71, the reading is under 90 minutes old, and the price is below 0.50; it sells everything if the prior hour's temperature is above 72 while price is above 0.66, if less than 45 minutes remain before expiry, or if unrealized loss exceeds 20. Positions are capped at 100 contracts.
Net P&L +$9+9.5% return
Sharpe 0.01
Win 35.7%
Aug 20
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses risk capital: the larger of the max-position limit and the most the run had in play at once, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 3 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
This strategy trades Kalshi NYC high-temperature markets every 60 seconds, capped at 3 contracts. It buys YES when the current temperature is above 71, the reading is under 90 minutes old, and the price is below 0.5; it sells everything if the prior hour's temperature is above 72 with price above 0.66, if under 45 minutes remain, or if unrealized loss exceeds 20.
Net P&L -$4-135.3% return
Sharpe -0.14
Win 27.6%
Sep 10
30d Aug 11 to Sep 10
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses risk capital: the larger of the max-position limit and the most the run had in play at once, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 30 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
On Kalshi's KXHIGHNY series, this strategy checks every 60 seconds, using National Weather Service readings from station KLGA. It can hold up to 30 contracts, and only trades when the YES price is between 0.08 and 0.94. Rules run in order, and the first one that matches acts. Rule 1 buys 5 YES contracts when the current New York temperature is above 71 degrees, the observation is less than 5400 seconds old, and the price is below 0.5. Rule 2 sells the entire position when the temperature one hour ago was above 72, the price is above 0.66, and a position exists. Rule 3 sells everything when less than 45 minutes remain before expiry and a position exists. Rule 4 sells everything when unrealized loss falls below negative 20.
Net P&L -$12-40.5% return
Sharpe -0.13
Win 35.7%
Oct 16
30d Sep 15 to Oct 15
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses risk capital: the larger of the max-position limit and the most the run had in play at once, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 33 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
On Kalshi's NYC high-temperature market, this strategy checks every 60 seconds whether the current temperature is above 71, the observation is under 5400 seconds old, and the price is below 0.5; if so, it buys 3 YES contracts, capped at 33 total. It sells everything if the prior hour's temperature is above 72 with price above 0.66, if under 45 minutes remain before expiry, or if unrealized loss falls below 20.
Net P&L -$30-89.8% return
Sharpe -0.07
Win 33.3%
Sep 10
30d Aug 11 to Sep 10
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses risk capital: the larger of the max-position limit and the most the run had in play at once, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 30 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
On Kalshi's NYC high-temperature market, this strategy checks every 60 seconds and buys up to 30 YES contracts when the current temperature is above 71, the observation is under 5400 seconds old, and the price is below 0.5. It exits by selling everything if the prior hour's temperature exceeds 72 while price is above 0.66, if less than 45 minutes remain before expiry, or if unrealized loss drops below -20. Position size is capped at 30 contracts.
Net P&L -$43-142.8% return
Sharpe -0.13
Win 26.7%
Sep 10
30d Aug 11 to Sep 10
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses risk capital: the larger of the max-position limit and the most the run had in play at once, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 60 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
On Kalshi's NYC high-temperature market it checks every 60 seconds, buying 3 YES contracts when the current temperature is above 71, the observation is under 5400 seconds old, and price is below 0.5. It sells the whole position if the prior hour's temperature exceeds 72 while price is above 0.66, if under 45 minutes remain, or if unrealized loss drops below 20. Position size is capped at 60 contracts, with YES prices allowed from 0.08 to 0.94.
Net P&L -$66-109.7% return
Sharpe -0.10
Win 33.3%
Sep 10
30d Aug 11 to Sep 10
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses risk capital: the larger of the max-position limit and the most the run had in play at once, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.