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On Kalshi's KXDOGE15M market, evaluated every 10 seconds, with a 90-contract position limit and YES prices bounded 0.01 to 0.99. Rules run top to bottom, first match fires. Rule 1 skips if position exceeds 90. Rules 2-4 sell all on profit gates by size tier: under/equal 30 needs unrealized above 18 with price 0.10-0.90; 36-60 needs above 30 with price 0.10-0.90; 66+ needs above 48. Rules 5-7 sell all on loss gates: under/equal 30 below -36 with price 0.15-0.85; 36-60 below -60 with price 0.15-0.85; 66+ below -90 with price 0.15-0.85. Rules 8-13 buy 90 contracts, only within 5 minutes of expiry and spread at or under 0.015, on DOGE trend confirmations. Rule 14 buys YES at price 0.88+ (spread 0.03); Rule 15 buys NO at 0.12 or below (spread 0.03), both within 5 minutes.
Over the Sep 19 to Oct 19 window, this custom strategy on Kalshi turned in +$535 of simulated profit (+594.3% on its configured risk capital), at a 0.01 Sharpe. It placed 3629 simulated trades and won 81.9% of them — a high hit rate — against deep worst peak-to-trough drawdown of -$1,534.
Under the hood it simulated 2726 Dogecoin (DOGE) markets, closing 1485 winning and 329 losing positions after $1,287 in modeled fees, an average of 121.0 trades a day. That trade-by-trade detail, the equity curve above, and the full rule set below are what separate this page from a one-line leaderboard entry.
Net PnL is the headline here; the Sharpe is unannualized over this short window, so read it as a within-sample texture of the equity curve rather than an industry-standard risk score. Because every figure comes from a single 30-day historical replay, it is best treated as a hypothesis to pressure-test rather than a forecast — the same rules can behave very differently once live fills, API latency, and shifting volatility enter the picture.
This backtest runs against Dogecoin (DOGE) markets on Kalshi's 15-minute series across 30 days (Sep 19 to Oct 19). These are short-horizon contracts that open and settle on a fixed 15-minute cadence, so the strategy is measured across many independent events rather than one long trend. Rules are evaluated once per 15-minute candle, and a signal can fill no earlier than the next tradable candle at top-of-book prices, net of Kalshi-style taker fees.
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