Level 5 + 10

Starter is $49/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

On Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, this strategy evaluates every 10 seconds with a maximum position of 5 contracts and YES prices between 0.05 and 0.99. Rules run top to bottom and the first match fires. Rules 1 and 2 sell an existing YES or NO position when its best bid is at or below 0.35. Rules 3 and 4 sell YES when spot is below strike and sell NO when spot is above strike. Rules 5 and 6 sell YES or NO when 2 to 15 minutes remain and its best bid is at least 0.995. Rules 7 through 16 buy the directional side in 5-contract size when flat and no order is working, requiring BTC price above zero, spot-versus-strike and EMA-versus-strike agreement, positive 5-minute change and non-negative 1-minute velocity, an ask between 0.9 and 0.99, and spread at or under 0.02, with entry windows tightening from 8 minutes down to 30 seconds and the spot distance threshold stepping from 70 down to 23.3. Entry orders are immediate-or-cancel.

Kalshi·Sep 15 to Oct 15 UTC·Created 12d ago

Net P&L

+$29

Return +577.4% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.32

Return Sharpe

Win rate

93.3%

481 trades

Max drawdown

-$11

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.