Level 5 + 10

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On Kalshi's most-liquid KXBTC15M market it evaluates every 10 seconds, capped at 5 contracts with YES prices between 0.05 and 0.99; rules run top to bottom and the first match ends that tick. Rules 1-2 sell an existing YES or NO position when that side's best bid is at or below 0.35. Rules 3-4 sell a held YES when spot sits below the strike, or a held NO when spot sits above it. Rules 5-6 sell a held YES or NO between 15 and 2 minutes to expiry when that side's best bid is at least 0.995. Rules 7-16 buy size 5 of YES or NO, each direction requiring no order outstanding, flat-to-under-5 position, a positive BTC price, spot versus strike beyond a threshold, EMA versus strike on the same side, matched 5-minute change and 1-minute velocity signs, ask between 0.9 and 0.99, and spread at or under 0.02; thresholds tighten as expiry nears: 70 points at 8 and 4 minutes, 46.7 at 2 minutes, 35 at 1 minute, 23.3 at 30 seconds. Rules 17-18 buy size 5 of YES or NO within 25 seconds of expiry with spread at or under 0.03 and ask between 0.9 and 0.99, no BTC or distance conditions. Entries are immediate or cancel.

Kalshi·Sep 15 to Oct 15 UTC·Created 12d ago

Net P&L

+$32

Return +631.8% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.35

Return Sharpe

Win rate

93.6%

563 trades

Max drawdown

-$14

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.