ETH Entry Band

Starter is $49/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXETH15M series and checks conditions every 10 seconds, with a position limit of 60 contracts and allowed prices between 0.01 and 0.99. Rules run top to bottom and only the first matching rule fires each tick. Rule 1 sells everything when time to expiry is 10 seconds or less. Rule 2 sells the YES position when YES holdings exceed zero and the YES best bid is at or below 0.25; Rule 3 does the same for NO holdings when the NO best bid is at or below 0.25. Rule 4 sells everything when unrealized loss is below -7 dollars. Rule 5 buys 50 YES contracts only when flat, expiry is within 12 minutes, ETH, BTC and SOL 5-minute changes are all above 0.001, ETH price is above both its 1-hour VWAP and 1-minute EMA12, ETH 1-minute MACD histogram is positive, price is between 0.30 and 0.70, and spread is at most 0.015. Rule 6 mirrors this for 50 NO contracts when all three 5-minute changes are below -0.001, ETH is below VWAP and EMA12, MACD histogram is negative, with the same price band and spread cap. Entries also require the America/Los_Angeles schedule, Monday through Friday 09:00 to 17:00, start inclusive and end exclusive; exits are not gated by that schedule.

Kalshi·Sep 14 to Oct 14 UTC·Created 13d ago

Net P&L

+$445

Return +741.5% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.65

Return Sharpe

Win rate

50.0%

180 trades

Max drawdown

-$58

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.