Entry Level Sets

Starter is $49/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades the most liquid KXBTC15M market on Kalshi, checking conditions every 10 seconds with a maximum position of 50 contracts and YES prices allowed between 0.05 and 0.99. Rules run top to bottom, first match wins. Five exits apply per fill: if a held YES position's best bid is at or below 0.35, or held NO's best bid is at or below 0.35, it sells that side; if spot is below the strike it sells YES, and if spot is above the strike it sells NO; and with between 2 and 15 minutes left, a YES bid at or above 0.995 sells YES, likewise for NO. Entries require no working order and a position under 50, a live BTC price, a tight spread of 0.02 or less, and an ask between 0.9 and 0.99. Entry tiers scale by time left and distance from strike: under 2 minutes with the gap at least 40.1 (buy YES) or at most -40.1 (buy NO); under 1 minute at 30; under 30 seconds at 20; under 25 seconds at 15, each also requiring the BTC change and velocity to point the same way and price above the EMA. Each entry buys 50 contracts.

Kalshi·Sep 15 to Oct 15 UTC·Created 12d ago

Net P&L

-$19

Return -38.7% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

-0.05

Return Sharpe

Win rate

93.2%

92 trades

Max drawdown

-$88

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.