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BTC Range Beyond Strike

Starter is $49/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This Kalshi strategy trades the most liquid KXBTC15M market, checking conditions every 30 seconds. Rules are evaluated top to bottom, and the first match ends that tick. Rule 1 buys 50 YES contracts when position size is zero, time to expiry is between 2 and 5 minutes, the 15-minute range low sits more than 25 below the strike, spot is above the strike, yes best ask is between 0.05 and 0.95, spread is at most 0.03, and balance is non-negative. Rule 2 buys 50 NO contracts under the mirror conditions: range high less than 25 above the strike, spot below the strike, no best ask between 0.05 and 0.95, and the same spread and balance checks. Rule 3 cancels all resting orders once time to expiry falls below 2 minutes. Entries are capped at one per market, notional at $50 per market, and position size at 50 contracts, with YES price bounds of 0.23 to 0.55. A $25 max loss can halt and liquidate only this strategy's attributed Kalshi inventory.

Kalshi·Sep 21 to Oct 21 UTC·Created 6d ago
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Describe an idea, review the backtest, and start from the same workspace.

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Net P&L
-$367
Return -734.6% on Risk Capital
Sharpe
-0.18
Return Sharpe
Win rate
41.5%
295 trades
Max drawdown
-$421
Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology
Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital
Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance
Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice
Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.