BTC Entry Bands

Starter is $49/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M series, checking conditions every 30 seconds. It looks at Coinbase price changes for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, refreshed every 15 seconds, tracking each asset's 15-minute and 1-hour change. The first rule fires when all four changes are above zero (BTC and ETH both up over 15 minutes and 1 hour), the YES best bid is at least 0.6 but below 0.7, and time to expiry is 5 minutes or less; it then buys 5 YES contracts. The second rule cancels all orders when 30 seconds or less remain to expiry. Position size is capped at 20 contracts, YES prices are bounded between 0.05 and 0.95, and entries are limited to one per market.

Kalshi·Sep 9 to Oct 9 UTC·Created 18d ago

Net P&L

+$25

Return +124.3% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.18

Return Sharpe

Win rate

62.3%

212 trades

Max drawdown

-$24

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.